Blog Posts

Solid Q4 GDP caps a tumultuous 2022

• Q4 2022 GDP came in +2.9% and beat expectations of 2.6%
•  Consumer spending was up 2.1% but down from 2.3% in Q3, which indicates a slowing economy
• The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates seven times for a total of 425 basis points

Turns out the U.S. economy had another excellent year in 2022, as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). As the world’s largest, most diverse, resilient and productive economy, the fourth quarter of 2022 came in at an annualized rate of 2.9%, vs. Wall Street’s expectations of 2.6%. While this reflects a slowdown from the prior quarter’s pace of 3.2% growth, it is still a solid performance, especially considering that last year’s first and second quarters were both negative.  READ MORE

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2022 ends on an up note and the new year is looking even better

• The U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in December, against expectations of 202,000
• The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from a November high of 3.7%
• Wage growth came in at an inflationary 4.6%, pushing the Fed to continue rate hikes

At last March’s BrandSource Summit in Las Vegas, our dealers faced rising inflation, a war in Ukraine, the banking community solidly predicting a 2022 recession and the threat of a job market collapse. The Federal Reserve had already committed to extensive interest rate hikes during the year, which should have slowed regular economic activity even more than anticipated.   READ MORE

November jobs numbers come in hot

Last week’s November jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics came in much higher than expected, with an increase of 263,000 new hires versus expectations of 200,000.

The unemployment number stayed the same as October at an historically low 3.7%. Wages rose 0.6% last month and surprised economists because it was twice the forecasted increase. On annualized basis, wages were up 5.1%, which was terrible news for the Fed as this rate is inflationary.    READ MORE

Down the Rabbit Hole: Why I’m eager to return to an economy that follows the rules

In baseball, the rules have not changed in over 100 years; if you hit a ball to center field, you run to first base, not third base.

Yet our economy no longer follows the rules of my old college textbooks, and the reactions to information on the macro or micro level are somehow different today than they were just three or four years ago.

When I watch Bloomberg business news, I get the feeling that we no longer follow the old, prescribed ways. For example, the strong jobs report in November did not send the Dow higher; instead, a good report takes the markets lower. Likewise, consumer confidence is falling rapidly, which usually implies less spending, although retail sales and consumer spending are up.   READ MORE

Economic expert Joe Higgins answers his audiences’ most frequently asked questions

I often get questions about the U.S. economy at the end of my presentations, whether I am doing them live or on Zoom. I always enjoy these interactions with the audience.

Here are the three most frequently asked questions. 

Question 1: How high will interest rates (Fed funds) go? 

As you all know, the Federal Reserve has raised rates six times this year to slow the economy just enough, but not enough cause a recession. The Fed has named the actions of raising interest rates just enough, without dire consequences, a “soft landing.” Analysts see the Fed moving rates another 50 basis points in December with more increases into 2023.   READ MORE

The Goldilocks Economy - Too hot, too cold or just right?

By Joe Higgins, Quest 4 Quality

• The August employment report showed that our economy added 187,000 jobs.
• The unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.8% as more people returned to the labor market.
• Consumer savings, the result of stimulus programs, have nearly dried up, spelling unwelcome news for the economy.

In the story of “Goldilocks and the Three Bears,” the young protagonist didn’t want the porridge that was too cold or too hot. She wanted the one that was just right.

Economists use the term Goldilocks economy to describe an ideal economy in America. It would occur in this scenario: inflation at 2%, unemployment below 4%, consumer spending near 2.5% and GDP above 3%. From the Federal Reserve’s point of view, it would be an economy where demand isn’t outpacing supply and everyone who wants a job has one.   READ MORE

And durable goods are making a comeback

• Gross domestic product for Q2 2023 came in at +2.4% and beat analysts’ expectations of +1.8%
• Consumer confidence hit a two-year high of 117 in July
• The Federal Reserve raised interest rates a quarter of a point last month, which may well have been the final increase this year

The stories I could tell you about America’s financial numbers in July would dazzle you.

Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board hit a two-year high of 117.0. Retail sales were up an outstanding 1.5% in June, and appliance, electronics and furniture stores were a big part of that increase. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for hopefully the last time. Jobless claims came in at 221,000, the lowest since January. And last but most important, gross domestic product (GDP) came in at 2.4%, above expectations of 1.8%.  READ MORE

As builders struggle to keep up with demand, outlook is good for new home suppliers

• New single-family home sales rose 12.3% month over month in May  
• In June, single-family housing starts were down 7.1%, after an 18.9% increase in May
• Existing home sales fell 3.3% in June, the slowest pace since the start of the year

The housing market has been in flux for more than a year. When the Federal Reserve first began raising interest rates, it seemed like it would be the death knell for home builders. Mortgage rates quickly doubled from 3% to 6%, then rose to 7.2%. Home builders in turn laid off construction workers and cut back on building as there were few buyers for new or existing homes.   READ MORE

Rising consumer confidence bodes well for the economy

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 109.7 in June from 102.5 in May. A reading over 100 is generally considered a sign of an expanding economy and a signal that consumers will consider spending money. Economists were expecting an increase to 103.9.

The increase surprised the experts, and the seven-point gain pushed the index to its highest level in 18 months as spending and job creation strengthened the U.S. economy. 

Confident consumers are another indication that recession is not in our immediate future. Before the Great Recession in 2008, consumer confidence dropped to an historic low of 34.6, the lowest level ever recorded in U.S. history. An index number this low suggested two things about the recession: how painful it would be and how long it would last. The Great Recession pushed unemployment to 10% and lasted 18 months, and so consumer confidence remains an essential predictor of the dynamics of any recession.   READ MORE

Right now, it’s not looking likely

By Joe Higgins, Quest 4 Quality

For the past two years, economists and banks have been predicting an imminent recession and for the past two years, they have been wrong.

This past week, Goldman Sachs lowered the likelihood of a recession over the next 12 months from 35% to 25%. Since America averted (barely) a banking crisis and the potential debt ceiling fiasco is past us, the economic landscape has become much more tolerable.

During my speaking engagements, I like to characterize the U.S. economy as productive, diverse and resilient. I think our ability to bounce back from almost any adversity is what I admire most about Americans and how we go about our daily lives, keeping this entire economic structure going. Yes, the word is resilient; it is who we are as a nation.    READ MORE

Be glad you’re not selling cars

• The average price of a new car is now $48,000
• The inventory of new cars has dropped from 3.5 million in 2019 to 1.2 million  today
• Credit card debt has reached an all-time high of $986 billion, with interest on loans at 5.9%

The automobile business has been in upheaval for three years due to production problems, COVID-19 and the shortage of chips. It will worsen as auto manufacturers are now racing to enter the electric vehicle market dominated by Tesla and other formidable competitors vying for this rapidly expanding business.

Ford and General Motors have invested heavily to keep up with Volkswagen, Kia and upstarts like Rivian. Electric vehicles now comprise about 7.3% of total auto sales, up from 4% last year.

The cutoff in the U.S. for the production of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) is 2035, which seems like a brief timeframe to switch to electric cars. With only 12 years left, it is unlikely that this industry’s chaos will diminish soon.  READ MORE

Yet consumer spending and employment remained strong

The odds of a recession have risen since January and will peak in the second half of this year as corporations and consumers cut back on spending. Here’s the lowdown:

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of this year came in at 1.1%. The number was well below Wall Street’s expectations of 1.9% growth, and significantly below 2022’s Q4 GDP of 2.6%.

The figures point to a disturbing trendline in what appears to be a slowly declining economy when looked at in the aggregate. It would seem that the effort by the Fed to slow the economy with a full year’s worth of interest rate increases is finally starting to affect overall growth.  READ MORE

Inflation’s down, will interest rates follow? 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, released earlier this month, showed the annual inflation rate dropping to 5%.

This was a significant reduction from the high of 9.1% last June, and was the smallest annual increase in inflation since June of 2021.  It also gets us much closer to the Fed’s target rate of 2%, meaning the Fed may possibly pause its rate hike cycle at its May meeting.  

Inflation for durables and other goods has continued to contract — down 7.9% for appliances and 14.1% lower for TVs. At the same time, the cost of services continues to climb, with airfares up 17.7%, hotel rooms 12.8% higher, and dining out rising 11.6%. READ MORE

… and left the same as consumer spending slows

• U.S.  retail sales slipped 1% from February but were up 2.9% over March 2022
• Furniture store sales declined 1.2% month over month
• Sales at electronics and appliance stores were down 2.1% from February

Total U.S. retail sales slipped 1% in March from February.

The tally was well below economists’ expectation of an essentially flat month (up 0.4%), but was up by a substantial 2.9% increase year over year.

In our neck of the woods, March sales at U.S. furniture stores were down 1.2% from February, and electronics and appliance stores posted a 2.1% decline.  READ MORE

Believe it or not, the Fed’s actions are working

• March job growth slowed
• Employee wage hikes eased
• Inflation rate falls to 5%

The March Jobs Report 

The March 2023 jobs report showed the economy added 236,000 new positions against expectations of 238,000. While this is a considerable number of additional jobs, it is the smallest gain in the past two years. The Federal Reserve is relieved that this report may finally signify a contraction in the economy. The trend line is obvious — the labor market is cooling down, and the economy will follow right behind. 

Since March, the Fed’s nine interest rate increases have moderated the extraordinary job numbers of 2021 and 2022.  READ MORE

Banking industry woes could make for a rocky ride

Let’s say you decided to fly non-stop on United from LAX to LaGuardia.

It was June and the weather was nice. The flight was perfect until the landing, when the pilot brought the plane down hard, knocking open the overhead bins. Luggage crashed to the floor and some passengers sustained slight injuries. Needless to say, it scared the hell out of you. 

Then later a friend asked how your flight was. You said it was terrible, we nearly crashed and I almost died. 

So, the first 5 hours and 10 minutes were good, but the 45-second landing is all you remember. 

This is a metaphor for our current economy.  READ MORE

Five million potential employees are still missing in action

We are undoubtedly in unprecedented times: COVID 19, inflation, recession and housing are just some of the problems affecting our economy.

However, the question I get asked most often is, “Where have all the workers gone?” It is a complex issue, and no one single thing has led to the extreme shortage of good people.

The confounding thing is that two jobs are available for every unemployed worker in the U.S. There are 11 million job openings against about 5 million folks who are considered unemployed. Many BrandSource dealers told me that if we do go into a recession, they will hold onto their employees for fear of being unable to find new ones later.  READ MORE

The fundamental things apply, as time goes by

By Joe Higgins, Quest 4 Quality

• July retail sales were up 3.1%, the best since January 
• The 30-year mortgage rate topped out at 7.1%
• Durable goods orders increased 4.6% as consumer spending shifts back from services

Retail Sales

July’s retail sales numbers were the best since the beginning of this year, a further indication that consumers are still propping up the U.S. economy. Spending rose 3.2% annually despite 10 interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve over the last 17 months.

This month’s spending increased at bars, restaurants and general merchandise stores but dropped at appliance, furniture and other retail channels. According to the Census Bureau’s July sales figures, the back-to-school business, including books, backpacks and clothing, was brisk.  READ MORE

The Higgins Report: Economic Crisis or Golden Parachute?

By Joe Higgins, Quest 4 Quality

Boomers to the rescue, again

Some sectors of our economy are rising and others are falling. Consumer spending has cooled, unemployment is rising and consumer confidence has declined for three months.

On the other hand, GDP has been solid, infrastructure spending is at an all-time high and overall retail sales are up. What does this all mean for the immediate future? Let’s explore what will hurt consumers, and the parachute that will change the future of the home goods business and remake housing.  

Let’s begin with four red flags we need to watch:  READ MORE

The Higgins Report: Ain’t Nothin’ Gonna Break Our Stride

By Joe Higgins, Quest 4 Quality

• The U.S. economy added 150,000 jobs in October, 21,000 fewer than forecast 
• Mortgage rates fell more than half a point to 7.5% in early November
• A gallon of regular gasoline fell 40 cents over the past 30 days to a national average of $3.49

Except maybe the Fed

What can I say about an economy that seems to ignore the laws of gravity?

Reminiscent of the Matthew Wilder tune, our economy has withstood 20 months of interest rate hikes, inflation exceeding 9% and international chaos with wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. And despite it all, some key economic indicators remain positive. 

The U.S. economy added 150,000 new jobs in October, 21,000 fewer than forecast and about 150,000 less than were added in September. The Federal Reserve could not have been happier, as this was the first time in 20 months that job growth had slowed, which will help bring inflation under control. 

But the Fed needs to watch out  READ MORE

The Higgins Report: GDP Growth Hits Two-Year High

By Joe Higgins, Quest 4 Quality

But none of the ‘experts’ expected it

The U.S. economy passed an all-important test last week as third-quarter GDP was revised upward to 5.2%, the highest growth in two years.

While this raises the fear of rising inflation and an overheated economy, I do not think growth at this level will lead to higher prices. I can see that improvements in the supply chain and the availability of more workers has limited the impact of the inflationary spiral we were in last year.

The pandemic caused a disruption in the supply of goods and services over the past three years. Injecting $5.9 trillion into the economy in the form of government stimulus money for businesses and consumers caused demand to spike. Of course we had inflation and significant economic disruptions, but those days are mostly behind us. 

At the same time, 21 million people lost their jobs READ MORE

The Higgins Report: Jobs Up, Inflation Down

By Joe Higgins, Quest 4 Quality

• The economy created 199,000 jobs in November, against expectations of 175,000
• The unemployment rate dropped to a three-month low of 3.7% from a high of 3.9% in October
• The CPI was up 0.1% in November and 3.1% for the year

The November numbers bode well for consumers

The U.S. economy was still red hot in November, creating 199,000 jobs against expectations of 175,000. Overall unemployment fell to 3.7%, a three-month low, with job growth showing strong momentum as we head toward 2024. Economists will call this a slowdown, but 200,000 jobs in one month is still an over-the-top performance. 

This increase is partially due to the return of autoworkers, actors, writers, healthcare workers and everyone else who had been on strike since September. It also reflects a moderation of the crazy pandemic-driven hiring hysteria that has been going on for the past three years. 

The unemployment rate averaged 3.5% for all of 2023; the last time that happened... READ MORE

The Higgins Report: End-of-the-Year Stunner

By Joe Higgins, Quest 4 Quality

Sixty days that changed the economy’s course

Some readers will think I’m ahead of my skis when I say this, but the past 60 days have given me hope that our economy is now on track to higher growth without inflation.

The most recent economic numbers tell a story that we all need to hear — about the resilience, productivity and diversity of the U.S. economy, and how we made it through an especially challenging time and prospered despite the threat of recession. 

It is important to note that the Federal Reserve has spent the last 22 months trying to slow down consumer spending by hiking the Fed fund rate to 5.25%. But in an unprecedented response, consumers ignored the higher rates and kept on buying. 

It all started with the release of the gross domestic product report... READ MORE